Orlando Magic at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 12, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers

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Total—

Season records: Magic and Trail Blazers
ORL	This season	POR
2-4	Record	4-1
2-4	ATS	3-2
3-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 118–109 · win probability POR 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

ORL 0, POR 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, POR 77.3%

PORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, POR 14.6%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, POR 14.8%

PORBig

ORL offense vs POR defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

PORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

PORSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, POR 35.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, POR 27.8

PORSmall

POR offense vs ORL defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 46.5% and 51.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: ORL away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	@ LAL	L104–105WU
Jan 15	@ LAC	W111–109WO
Jan 17	@ DEN	W127–126WO

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	vs LAL	W136–129WO
Jan 15	vs SAC	W128–120LO
Jan 17	@ OKC	L95–124LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 6–4 PORORL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · ORL 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 23, 2025-26	ORL 110 @ POR 106	POR +1.5	ORL W
Nov 10, 2025-26	POR 112 @ ORL 115	ORL -2.5	ORL W
Jan 30, 2024-25	ORL 90 @ POR 119	POR +5.5	POR W
Jan 23, 2024-25	POR 101 @ ORL 79	ORL -6.5	POR W
Apr 1, 2023-24	POR 103 @ ORL 104	ORL -17.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 0, Trail Blazers 3, even 2

MagicBetterTrail Blazers

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

PORSmall

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

PORSmall

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

Even

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

PORBig

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

MagicBetterTrail Blazers

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

PORSmall

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

PORSmall

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

PORSmall

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

POR4.2 #21

ORL		POR
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	120.6 #4
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.16 #5
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
35.4 #11	3-point %	35.3 #12
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
26.3 #16	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
7.0 #26	Steals per game	8.6 #18
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Trail Blazers