Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 12, 11:00 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Warriors
SAC	This season	GS
0-6	Record	4-3
1-5	ATS	5-2
5-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 125–111 · win probability GS 85%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

SAC 0, GS 9 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

GS offense vs SAC defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 38.0% and 47.1% of their shots

GSBig

SAC offense vs GS defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

GSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, GS 70.4%

GSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, GS 28.8. Allowed: SAC 31.2, GS 27.3

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, GS 16.7%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, GS 17.6%

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	vs LAC	L96–121LU
Jan 15	@ POR	L120–128WO
Jan 17	@ UTAH	W116–111WU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	vs CHA	W136–116WO
Jan 15	@ ATL	L110–126LO
Jan 17	@ MIA	W135–112WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

SAC 11–17 GSGS leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · SAC 14-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	GS 118 @ SAC 124	SAC +10.5	SAC W
Apr 7, 2025-26	SAC 105 @ GS 110	GS -14.5	SAC W
Jan 9, 2025-26	SAC 103 @ GS 137	GS -15.5	GS W
Nov 5, 2025-26	GS 116 @ SAC 121	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Mar 13, 2024-25	SAC 104 @ GS 130	GS -7.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 1, Warriors 4, even 0

KingsBetterWarriors

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

GSBig

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

GSBig

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

SACSmall

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

GSBig

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

GSBig

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

KingsBetterWarriors

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

GSBig

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

GSBig

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

GSBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

GS4.1 #24

SAC		GS
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.17 #3
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
30.4 #27	3-point %	40.0 #2
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
24.5 #23	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.1 #11
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Warriors