State Farm Arena · at Hawks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 GS | This season | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 5-2 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects ATL 118–116 · win probability ATL 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GS has more of the edges
GS 6, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far
GSBigFree throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, ATL 23.4. Allowed: GS 27.3, ATL 32.1
GSBigRecent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6
ATLBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: GS 17.6%, ATL 18.3%
GSBigGS offense vs ATL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points
ATLSmallATL offense vs GS defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, ATL 70.9%
GSSmallThree-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 47.1% and 44.7% of their shots
ATLSmallHome court
ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, GS 2-2 away
GSSmallShooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelATL -2.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.9
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 115.8 · ATL 118.1
Win probability
ATL 56%
1st half
Spread
ATL -1.1
Total
117.0
Projected score
GS 57.9 · ATL 59.1
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
| ATLlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
GS 4–6 ATLATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · GS 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025-26 | GS 110 @ ATL 126 | ATL -7.5 | ATL W |
| Jan 11, 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ GS 111 | GS -7.5 | ATL W |
| Mar 22, 2024-25 | GS 115 @ ATL 124 | ATL +2.5 | ATL W |
| Nov 20, 2024-25 | ATL 97 @ GS 120 | GS -7.5 | GS W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | GS 134 @ ATL 141 | ATL -2.5 | ATL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hawks
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ ORL | W 132-125 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 233.5 | O 257 |
| Oct 23 | @ CHA | W 128-81 | -2.5 | W +44.5 | 226.5 | U 209 |
| Oct 24 | vs HOU | L 114-121 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 227.5 | O 235 |
| Oct 26 | @HOU | L 110-120 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 228.5 | O 230 |
| Oct 28 | vs MIA | L 117-129 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 243.5 | O 246 |
| Oct 29 | vs CLE | W 114-111 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 237.5 | U 225 |
| Oct 31 | @ NO | L 99-121 | -5.5 | L −27.5 | 239.5 | U 220 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
−5.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
−5.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 117-129
−14.5
29
vsCLE
CLEW 114-111
+1.5
31
@NO
NOL 99-121
−27.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
+7.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
+1.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 117-129
+2.5
29
vsCLE
CLEW 114-111
−12.5
31
@NO
NOL 99-121
−19.5
over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Hawks has the better starters
Position by position: Warriors 1, Hawks 2, even 2
WarriorsBetterHawks
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
=Even
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 67
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
→ATLSmall
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast
Score 87
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
→ATLBig
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast
Score 59
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
=Even
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast
Score 78
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
←GSBig
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 30
WarriorsBetterHawks
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
←GSSmall
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
→ATLSmall
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
→ATLBig
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
←GSBig
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
←GSBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
HawksGuards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
GS117.7 #11ATL116.3 #13Points per possession
GS1.17 #3ATL1.10 #16Pace (possessions)
GS101.4 #25ATL105.6 #7Shooting
Effective FG%
GS55.3 #8ATL52.6 #193-point %
GS40.0 #2ATL32.8 #223-point attempt rate
GS47.1 #5ATL44.7 #11Free throw rate
GS28.8 #15ATL23.4 #26Possessions
Turnover rate
GS16.7 #22ATL13.8 #4Offensive rebound rate
GS33.2 #1ATL27.1 #18Assists per game
GS27.4 #10ATL30.7 #1Defense
Points allowed
GS114.9 #16ATL115.4 #19Points allowed per possession
GS1.13 #21ATL1.10 #17Opponent effective FG%
GS56.0 #25ATL54.5 #22Opponent 3-point %
GS35.2 #16ATL31.9 #7Turnovers forced
GS17.6 #5ATL18.3 #2Defensive rebound rate
GS70.4 #23ATL70.9 #19Steals per game
GS9.1 #11ATL9.4 #8Blocks per game
GS4.1 #24ATL3.7 #29| GS | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.7 #11 | Points per game | 116.3 #13 |
| 1.17 #3 | Points per possession | 1.10 #16 |
| 101.4 #25 | Pace (possessions) | 105.6 #7 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #8 | Effective FG% | 52.6 #19 |
| 40.0 #2 | 3-point % | 32.8 #22 |
| 47.1 #5 | 3-point attempt rate | 44.7 #11 |
| 28.8 #15 | Free throw rate | 23.4 #26 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.7 #22 | Turnover rate | 13.8 #4 |
| 33.2 #1 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.1 #18 |
| 27.4 #10 | Assists per game | 30.7 #1 |
| Defense | ||
| 114.9 #16 | Points allowed | 115.4 #19 |
| 1.13 #21 | Points allowed per possession | 1.10 #17 |
| 56.0 #25 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.5 #22 |
| 35.2 #16 | Opponent 3-point % | 31.9 #7 |
| 17.6 #5 | Turnovers forced | 18.3 #2 |
| 70.4 #23 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.9 #19 |
| 9.1 #11 | Steals per game | 9.4 #8 |
| 4.1 #24 | Blocks per game | 3.7 #29 |
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.
Hawks
3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Pelicans99–121
- Wvs Cavaliers114–111
- Lvs Heat117–129
- L@ Rockets110–120
- Lvs Rockets114–121
A week or more of rest.