Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 15, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Pacers
PHX	This season	IND
1-3	Record	2-5
0-4	ATS	3-4
3-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 116–115 · win probability PHX 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

PHX 1, IND 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs IND defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

INDSmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, IND 31.2. Allowed: PHX 31.1, IND 32.1

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, PHX 0-2 away

INDSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 45.1% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, IND 14.8%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, IND 14.9%

Even

IND offense vs PHX defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, IND 72.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 18	@ LAC	L93–117LO
Jan 20	vs MEM	W131–105WO
Jan 22	vs UTAH	W134–109WO

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	@ WSH	L118–131LO
Jan 19	@ PHI	L109–114WU
Jan 20	@ BOS	L104–119LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 7–3 INDPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · PHX 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	PHX 123 @ IND 108	IND +9.5	PHX W
Nov 13, 2025-26	IND 98 @ PHX 133	PHX -3.5	PHX W
Jan 4, 2024-25	PHX 108 @ IND 126	IND -2.5	IND W
Dec 19, 2024-25	IND 120 @ PHX 111	PHX -6.5	IND W
Jan 26, 2023-24	PHX 131 @ IND 133	IND +5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Pacers 3, even 1

SunsBetterPacers

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

INDSmall

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

INDBig

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

INDSmall

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

SunsBetterPacers

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

PHXSmall

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

Even

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

INDBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

IND4.0 #26

PHX		IND
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.10 #17
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
35.0 #16	3-point %	34.1 #18
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
27.5 #8	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
9.0 #15	Steals per game	6.9 #27
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Pacers

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Pacers