Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 15, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Raptors
MIA	This season	TOR
2-4	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 120–114 · win probability TOR 67%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

MIA 2, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, TOR 73.4%

TORBig

TOR offense vs MIA defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, TOR 27.7. Allowed: MIA 23.2, TOR 41.5

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, TOR 20.8%

MIASmall

MIA offense vs TOR defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 38.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIA away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	vs GS	L112–135LO
Jan 19	vs POR	L110–127LO
Jan 20	@ SA	L111–136LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	@ CHI	W135–92WU
Jan 19	vs CHI	W135–92WU
Jan 20	@ NY	L95–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

MIA 9–11 TORTOR leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 4 meetings · MIA 6-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 9, 2025-26	MIA 114 @ TOR 128	TOR -4.5	TOR W
Apr 7, 2025-26	MIA 95 @ TOR 121	TOR -2.5	TOR W
Dec 23, 2025-26	TOR 112 @ MIA 91	MIA -5.5	TOR W
Dec 15, 2025-26	TOR 106 @ MIA 96	MIA -4.5	TOR W
Feb 21, 2024-25	MIA 120 @ TOR 111	TOR +3.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Heat 2, Raptors 2, even 1

HeatBetterRaptors

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIASmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIASmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

Even

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

HeatBetterRaptors

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIASmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

TORBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

TOR4.3 #19

MIA		TOR
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.11 #13
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
34.1 #19	3-point %	32.0 #24
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
28.8 #3	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
8.3 #19	Steals per game	12.7 #2
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Raptors

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Raptors