Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 15, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Bucks
CLE	This season	MIL
4-2	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 122–112 · win probability CLE 78%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 6, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs MIL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, MIL 23.9. Allowed: CLE 23.2, MIL 29.7

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, MIL 12.2%

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 43.6% and 45.9% of their shots

MILSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, MIL 74.2%

CLESmall

MIL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CLE away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 16	@ MEM	W142–126WO
Jan 18	vs DET	W125–94WO
Jan 21	@ BKN	W125–121LO

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	@ LAL	W105–101WU
Jan 20	@ SAC	W115–98WU
Jan 22	@ GS	L113–120LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

CLE 15–6 MILCLE leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings · CLE 13-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	CLE 136 @ MIL 111	MIL +8.5	CLE W
Mar 17, 2025-26	CLE 123 @ MIL 116	MIL +12.5	MIL W
Feb 25, 2025-26	CLE 116 @ MIL 118	MIL +3.5	MIL W
Nov 17, 2025-26	MIL 106 @ CLE 118	CLE -5.5	CLE W
Oct 26, 2025-26	MIL 113 @ CLE 118	CLE -6.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Bucks 0, even 1

CavaliersBetterBucks

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLEBig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

Even

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

CavaliersBetterBucks

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CLESmall

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

MIL4.0 #27

CLE		MIL
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.07 #20
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
37.0 #8	3-point %	33.9 #21
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
28.7 #4	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
7.8 #22	Steals per game	5.7 #30
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Bucks

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Bucks

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Bucks