Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 13, 10:00 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Warriors
CHA	This season	GS
3-4	Record	4-3
3-4	ATS	5-2
1-6	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 113–108 · win probability GS 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

CHA 1, GS 7 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 50.8% and 47.1% of their shots

GSBig

CHA offense vs GS defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, GS 16.7%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, GS 17.6%

GSBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: CHA 28.4, GS 27.3

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, GS 70.4%

GSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

GS offense vs CHA defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	@ UTAH	W150–95WO
Jan 16	@ DEN	W110–87WU
Jan 19	@ DAL	W117–90WU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	@ ATL	L110–126LO
Jan 17	@ MIA	W135–112WO
Jan 19	@ ORL	W120–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 2–8 GSGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS has won the last 7 meetings · CHA 3-6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	CHA 116 @ GS 136	GS -7.5	GS W
Dec 31, 2025-26	GS 132 @ CHA 125	CHA +7.5	CHA W
Mar 3, 2024-25	GS 119 @ CHA 101	CHA +12.5	GS W
Feb 25, 2024-25	CHA 92 @ GS 128	GS -17.5	GS W
Mar 29, 2023-24	GS 115 @ CHA 97	CHA +12.5	GS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, Warriors 2, even 2

HornetsBetterWarriors

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

GSBig

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

Even

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

GSBig

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

HornetsBetterWarriors

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

GSBig

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

GS4.1 #24

CHA		GS
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	117.7 #11
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.17 #3
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
29.6 #28	3-point %	40.0 #2
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
21.6 #30	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.1 #11
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Warriors