Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 13, 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Thunder
HOU	This season	OKC
6-1	Record	4-2
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 111–109 · win probability HOU 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 38.1% and 35.8% of their shots

HOUBig

OKC offense vs HOU defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: HOU 24.7, OKC 23.4

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, HOU 3-1 away

OKCSmall

HOU offense vs OKC defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	vs WSH	W123–118LO
Jan 16	vs DET	W111–104WU
Jan 18	@ MEM	W132–101WO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	vs UTAH	W146–111WO
Jan 17	vs POR	W124–95WU
Jan 18	@ DAL	L96–120LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

HOU 11–10 OKCHOU leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 13-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	OKC 98 @ HOU 119	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Feb 7, 2025-26	HOU 112 @ OKC 106	OKC -3.5	HOU W
Jan 15, 2025-26	OKC 111 @ HOU 91	HOU +4.5	OKC W
Oct 21, 2025-26	HOU 124 @ OKC 125	OKC -6.5	HOU W
Apr 4, 2024-25	OKC 111 @ HOU 125	HOU +5.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 2, Thunder 1, even 2

RocketsBetterThunder

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

OKCSmall

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

Even

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

Even

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

RocketsBetterThunder

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

OKC6.3 #7

HOU		OKC
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.05 #23
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
39.0 #3	3-point %	30.9 #26
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
28.1 #5	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
9.7 #6	Steals per game	8.3 #20
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Thunder

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Thunder

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Thunder