FedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-0 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 6-0 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MEM 116–116 · win probability MEM 50%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
DAL 0, MEM 5 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, MEM 75.0%
MEMSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, MEM 15.7%
MEMSmallThree-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 42.1% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMSmallMEM offense vs DAL defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
MEMSmallHome court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
DAL offense vs MEM defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, MEM 25.3. Allowed: DAL 27.2, MEM 31.4
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMEM -0.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.1
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 116 · MEM 116.1
Win probability
MEM 50%
1st half
Spread
DAL -0.1
Total
116.1
Projected score
DAL 58.1 · MEM 58
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
DAL 8–13 MEMMEM leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · DAL 10-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025-26 | DAL 120 @ MEM 112 | MEM +5.5 | DAL W |
| Feb 27, 2025-26 | MEM 124 @ DAL 105 | DAL -4.5 | MEM W |
| Nov 22, 2025-26 | MEM 102 @ DAL 96 | DAL -1.5 | MEM W |
| Nov 7, 2025-26 | DAL 104 @ MEM 118 | MEM -4.5 | MEM W |
| Apr 18, 2024-25 | DAL 106 @ MEM 120 | MEM -5.5 | MEM W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1
MavericksBetterGrizzlies
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
=Even
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
←DALSmall
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
→MEMSmall
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→MEMBig
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
MavericksBetterGrizzlies
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
=Even
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→MEMSmall
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→MEMBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
→MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
←DALBig
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14MEM121.2 #1Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11MEM1.16 #4Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18MEM103.6 #13Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2MEM55.9 #53-point %
DAL35.1 #14MEM41.7 #13-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18MEM42.1 #19Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29MEM25.3 #22Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23MEM15.4 #16Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13MEM30.6 #5Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12MEM27.0 #13Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14MEM106.0 #3Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13MEM1.03 #2Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9MEM49.2 #3Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2MEM30.0 #3Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24MEM15.7 #15Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25MEM75.0 #9Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16MEM6.3 #28Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2MEM5.2 #11| DAL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 121.2 #1 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.16 #4 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 103.6 #13 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 55.9 #5 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 41.7 #1 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #19 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 25.3 #22 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 15.4 #16 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.6 #5 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 27.0 #13 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 106.0 #3 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.03 #2 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 49.2 #3 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.0 #3 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #15 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.0 #9 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 6.3 #28 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 5.2 #11 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.