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NBA · Thu, Jan 14

Mavericks @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
#17DALMavericks
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonDET
4-2Record5-1
4-2ATS5-1
2-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 116–108 · win probability DET 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 223.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DAL 1, DET 4 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
DAL offense vs DET defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, DET 15.6%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, DET 17.1%
DETSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, DET 28.9. Allowed: DAL 27.2, DET 28.1
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, DAL 2-1 away
DALSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, DET 72.8%
Even
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 42.1% and 43.3% of their shots
Even
DET offense vs DAL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -7.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model223.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 108.3 · DET 115.5
Win probability
DET 70%
1st half
Spread
DET -3.9
Total
112.2
Projected score
DAL 54.2 · DET 58.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 1, Pistons 3, even 1
MavericksBetterPistons
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
DETBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
DETSmall
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
DETSmall
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
DALSmall
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
MavericksBetterPistons
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
Even
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
DETBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DALDET
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game109.8 #21
1.12 #11Points per possession1.09 #18
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%53.1 #17
35.1 #143-point %36.3 #9
42.1 #183-point attempt rate43.3 #13
21.4 #29Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate15.6 #17
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
27.0 #12Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed101.8 #1
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
14.5 #24Turnovers forced17.1 #6
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
8.8 #16Steals per game9.0 #12
6.8 #2Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.