Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 13, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Pacers
MIL	This season	IND
1-5	Record	2-5
2-4	ATS	3-4
5-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IND 119–114 · win probability IND 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

MIL 1, IND 4 · 2026-27 so far

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, IND 72.7%

INDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, IND 14.8%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, IND 14.9%

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, MIL 0-2 away

INDSmall

IND offense vs MIL defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, IND 31.2. Allowed: MIL 29.7, IND 32.1

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

MIL offense vs IND defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	vs CLE	L111–136LO
Jan 17	@ LAL	W105–101WU
Jan 20	@ SAC	W115–98WU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	vs PHX	L108–123LO
Jan 17	@ WSH	L118–131LO
Jan 19	@ PHI	L109–114WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 33 since 2021-22

MIL 19–14 INDMIL leads · 33 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 5 meetings · MIL 19-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	IND 102 @ MIL 110	MIL +3.5	MIL W
Mar 15, 2025-26	IND 123 @ MIL 134	MIL -7.5	MIL W
Feb 6, 2025-26	IND 99 @ MIL 105	MIL +1.5	MIL W
Dec 23, 2025-26	MIL 111 @ IND 94	IND +1.5	MIL W
Nov 3, 2025-26	MIL 117 @ IND 115	IND +6.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Pacers 3, even 1

BucksBetterPacers

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

INDBig

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

INDSmall

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

Even

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

INDBig

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

BucksBetterPacers

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Even

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

Even

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

IND4.0 #26

MIL		IND
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.10 #17
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
33.9 #21	3-point %	34.1 #18
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
26.0 #20	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
5.7 #30	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Pacers

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Pacers