Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 9, 6:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Nets
HOU	This season	BKN
6-1	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 118–104 · win probability HOU 85%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 7, BKN 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

BKN offense vs HOU defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

HOUBig

HOU offense vs BKN defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 38.1% and 48.0% of their shots

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, BKN 32.9. Allowed: HOU 24.7, BKN 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, BKN 15.9%

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, HOU 3-1 away

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, BKN 77.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: HOU away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	@ BOS	L93–114LU
Jan 13	@ OKC	W119–98WU
Jan 15	vs WSH	W123–118LO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	@ IND	W98–90WU
Jan 12	@ MIA	L110–126LO
Jan 14	@ PHI	L97–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 4–6 BKNBKN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 1, 2025-26	HOU 120 @ BKN 96	BKN +13.5	HOU W
Oct 27, 2025-26	BKN 109 @ HOU 137	HOU -15.5	HOU W
Feb 4, 2024-25	HOU 97 @ BKN 99	BKN +8.5	BKN W
Feb 1, 2024-25	BKN 110 @ HOU 98	HOU -12.5	BKN W
Jan 27, 2023-24	HOU 104 @ BKN 106	BKN -4.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 4, Nets 0, even 1

RocketsBetterNets

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

RocketsBetterNets

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

BKN4.7 #17

HOU		BKN
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.03 #29
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
39.0 #3	3-point %	35.1 #15
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
28.1 #5	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
9.7 #6	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Nets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Nets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Nets