Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 11, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Celtics
HOU	This season	BOS
6-1	Record	5-1
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 111–110 · win probability BOS 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 4, BOS 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUBig

BOS offense vs HOU defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, BOS 68.4%

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.9% of their shots

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, BOS 17.8%

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: HOU 24.7, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Even

HOU offense vs BOS defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	@ OKC	W119–98WU
Jan 15	vs WSH	W123–118LO
Jan 16	vs DET	W111–104WU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	vs NY	W107–103WU
Jan 16	vs BKN	W125–124LO
Jan 18	@ WSH	W111–100LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 3–7 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2025-26	BOS 114 @ HOU 93	HOU -8.5	BOS W
Nov 1, 2025-26	HOU 128 @ BOS 101	BOS +4.5	HOU W
Jan 27, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ BOS 112	BOS -5.5	HOU W
Jan 3, 2024-25	BOS 109 @ HOU 86	HOU +3.5	BOS W
Jan 21, 2023-24	BOS 116 @ HOU 107	HOU +11.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 3, Celtics 1, even 1

RocketsBetterCeltics

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

BOSSmall

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUSmall

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

RocketsBetterCeltics

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

BOS4.0 #25

HOU		BOS
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.15 #6
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
39.0 #3	3-point %	35.5 #10
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
28.1 #5	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
9.7 #6	Steals per game	9.2 #9
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Celtics

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Celtics

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Celtics