Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 11, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Wizards
ATL	This season	WSH
3-4	Record	3-3
3-4	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 118–114 · win probability ATL 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ATL 4, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, WSH 34.2. Allowed: ATL 32.1, WSH 21.8

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

ATL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, WSH 13.3%

ATLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

ATLSmall

WSH offense vs ATL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 44.7% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	vs CLE	W114–111WU
Jan 15	vs GS	W126–110WO
Jan 18	vs PHI	W125–116WO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 12	@ PHI	L131–153LO
Jan 15	@ HOU	L118–123WO
Jan 17	vs IND	W131–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

ATL 14–6 WSHATL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · ATL 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2025-26	WSH 96 @ ATL 126	ATL -10.5	ATL W
Feb 24, 2025-26	WSH 98 @ ATL 119	ATL -12.5	ATL W
Dec 6, 2025-26	ATL 131 @ WSH 116	WSH +9.5	ATL W
Nov 25, 2025-26	ATL 113 @ WSH 132	WSH +10.5	WSH W
Feb 8, 2024-25	ATL 125 @ WSH 111	WSH +6.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 3, Wizards 1, even 1

HawksBetterWizards

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

WSHSmall

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

HawksBetterWizards

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLSmall

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

WSH5.3 #9

ATL		WSH
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.08 #19
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
32.8 #22	3-point %	29.3 #29
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
30.7 #1	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.4 #8	Steals per game	7.2 #24
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Wizards

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Wizards

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Wizards