Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 13, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Hawks
CLE	This season	ATL
4-2	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 118–117 · win probability CLE 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 4, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, ATL 23.4. Allowed: CLE 23.2, ATL 32.1

CLEBig

CLE offense vs ATL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

ATL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, ATL 18.3%

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 43.6% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	@ MIL	W136–111WO
Jan 16	@ MEM	W142–126WO
Jan 18	vs DET	W125–94WO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 15	vs GS	W126–110WO
Jan 18	vs PHI	W125–116WO
Jan 20	vs POR	W135–101WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CLE 8–12 ATLATL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 2 meetings · CLE 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 29, 2026-27	CLE 111 @ ATL 114	ATL -1.5	ATL W
Apr 10, 2025-26	CLE 102 @ ATL 124	ATL -8.5	ATL W
Apr 8, 2025-26	ATL 116 @ CLE 122	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Nov 28, 2025-26	CLE 123 @ ATL 130	ATL +6.5	ATL W
Nov 2, 2025-26	ATL 109 @ CLE 117	CLE -6.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Hawks 1, even 2

CavaliersBetterHawks

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLESmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

CavaliersBetterHawks

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

ATLSmall

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

ATL3.7 #29

CLE		ATL
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.10 #16
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
37.0 #8	3-point %	32.8 #22
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
28.7 #4	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.4 #8
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Hawks

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Hawks

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Hawks