Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 11, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Knicks
DEN	This season	NY
3-2	Record	2-4
2-3	ATS	1-5
3-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 115–110 · win probability NY 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, NY 3 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, NY 78.7%

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, NY 24.5. Allowed: DEN 21.5, NY 25.9

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, NY 15.2%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, NY 13.2%

NYSmall

DEN offense vs NY defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 40.9% and 43.2% of their shots

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

DENSmall

NY offense vs DEN defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 12	@ MIL	W102–100WU
Jan 14	vs MEM	W136–119LO
Jan 16	vs CHA	L87–110LU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	@ BOS	L103–107LU
Jan 14	vs MIA	W132–125LO
Jan 16	vs DAL	L97–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 3–7 NYNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 4 meetings · DEN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	NY 142 @ DEN 103	DEN -1.5	NY W
Feb 4, 2025-26	DEN 127 @ NY 134	NY -4.5	NY W
Jan 29, 2024-25	DEN 112 @ NY 122	NY -2.5	NY W
Nov 25, 2024-25	NY 145 @ DEN 118	DEN -2.5	NY W
Mar 21, 2023-24	NY 100 @ DEN 113	DEN -9.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Knicks 2, even 2

NuggetsBetterKnicks

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

NYSmall

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NuggetsBetterKnicks

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

NYSmall

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

NY4.0 #28

DEN		NY
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.05 #24
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
37.4 #7	3-point %	35.2 #13
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
26.8 #14	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
10.2 #5	Steals per game	7.3 #23
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Knicks

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Knicks