Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 11, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Timberwolves
CLE	This season	MIN
4-2	Record	4-3
2-4	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 119–113 · win probability MIN 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

CLE 2, MIN 5 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs CLE defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, MIN 26.1. Allowed: CLE 23.2, MIN 28.9

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, MIN 75.4%

CLESmall

CLE offense vs MIN defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

MINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 43.6% and 42.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, MIN 15.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	@ ATL	L111–114LU
Jan 15	@ MIL	W136–111WO
Jan 16	@ MEM	W142–126WO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	@ CHI	L115–120LU
Jan 16	@ PHI	L103–115LU
Jan 18	@ NY	W115–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

CLE 6–5 MINCLE leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings · CLE 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	MIN 125 @ CLE 127	CLE -3.5	MIN W
Jan 10, 2025-26	MIN 134 @ CLE 146	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Jan 8, 2025-26	CLE 122 @ MIN 131	MIN -3.5	MIN W
Feb 10, 2024-25	MIN 107 @ CLE 128	CLE -7.5	CLE W
Jan 18, 2024-25	CLE 124 @ MIN 117	MIN +4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 0, Timberwolves 1, even 4

CavaliersBetterTimberwolves

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

Even

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

CavaliersBetterTimberwolves

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLESmall

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

MIN4.3 #20

CLE		MIN
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.13 #8
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
37.0 #8	3-point %	37.6 #6
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
28.7 #4	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.0 #13
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Timberwolves