Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 11, 10:00 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Clippers
LAL	This season	LAC
5-2	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 116–114 · win probability LAL 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 3, LAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

LALBig

LAC offense vs LAL defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

LAL offense vs LAC defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, LAC 70.9%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, LAC 17.0%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, LAC 28.0. Allowed: LAL 30.7, LAC 24.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	@ POR	L129–136LO
Jan 14	vs ORL	W105–104LU
Jan 17	vs MIL	L101–105LU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	@ SAC	W121–96WU
Jan 15	vs ORL	L109–111LO
Jan 18	vs PHX	W117–93WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

LAL 10–12 LACLAC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 3 meetings · LAL 9-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	LAL 103 @ LAC 87	LAC -1.5	LAL W
Oct 23, 2026-27	LAC 117 @ LAL 125	LAL -8.5	LAC W
Feb 20, 2025-26	LAC 122 @ LAL 125	LAL -7.5	LAC W
Jan 22, 2025-26	LAL 104 @ LAC 112	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 20, 2025-26	LAL 88 @ LAC 103	LAC +1.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 4, Clippers 0, even 1

LakersBetterClippers

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

LALSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

LALSmall

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

LakersBetterClippers

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

LALBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

LAC4.2 #22

LAL		LAC
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.04 #27
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
38.9 #4	3-point %	38.6 #5
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
23.4 #27	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
10.4 #4	Steals per game	11.3 #3
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Clippers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Clippers