Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 10, 7:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Suns
CHI	This season	PHX
1-5	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	0-4
2-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 123–114 · win probability PHX 74%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

CHI 4, PHX 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

PHXBig

PHX offense vs CHI defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, PHX 22.8. Allowed: CHI 33.5, PHX 31.1

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, PHX 17.1%

CHIBig

Recent form

Last 4: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

CHISmall

CHI offense vs PHX defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

PHXSmall

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 47.9% and 45.1% of their shots

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

CHISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, PHX 65.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 12	@ UTAH	W128–126LO
Jan 14	vs MIN	W120–115WU
Jan 17	vs TOR	L92–135LU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	@ TOR	W120–98WU
Jan 15	@ IND	W123–108WO
Jan 18	@ LAC	L93–117LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 1–9 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	PHX 120 @ CHI 110	CHI +11.5	CHI W
Mar 5, 2025-26	CHI 105 @ PHX 103	PHX -10.5	CHI W
Mar 19, 2024-25	CHI 121 @ PHX 127	PHX -5.5	PHX W
Feb 22, 2024-25	PHX 121 @ CHI 117	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Jan 22, 2023-24	CHI 113 @ PHX 115	PHX -5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Suns has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Suns 2, even 2

BullsBetterSuns

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

PHXSmall

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CHISmall

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

Even

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

PHXBig

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

BullsBetterSuns

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHISmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

PHXBig

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

PHXBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

PHX5.3 #10

CHI		PHX
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.12 #12
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
28.1 #30	3-point %	35.0 #16
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
24.3 #25	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.0 #15
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Suns

What could decide it: PHX has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Suns

Suns has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Suns