Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 8:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Rockets
MIN	This season	HOU
4-3	Record	6-1
6-1	ATS	6-1
4-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 114–112 · win probability HOU 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

MIN 0, HOU 2 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, HOU 31.9. Allowed: MIN 28.9, HOU 24.7

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 42.8% and 38.1% of their shots

Even

HOU offense vs MIN defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

Even

MIN offense vs HOU defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, HOU 73.2%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, HOU 15.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: MIN away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ TOR	W117–94WU
Jan 8	@ WSH	W141–115WO
Jan 11	vs CLE	L125–127WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs MEM	W132–101WO
Jan 9	@ BKN	W120–96WU
Jan 11	@ BOS	L93–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

MIN 13–4 HOUMIN leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 11-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	MIN 136 @ HOU 132	HOU -9.5	MIN W
Mar 25, 2025-26	HOU 108 @ MIN 110	MIN +1.5	MIN W
Jan 16, 2025-26	MIN 105 @ HOU 110	HOU -3.5	HOU W
Feb 21, 2024-25	MIN 115 @ HOU 121	HOU -4.5	HOU W
Feb 6, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ MIN 127	MIN -0.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Timberwolves 1, Rockets 1, even 3

TimberwolvesBetterRockets

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

HOUSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

Even

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINSmall

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

Even

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

TimberwolvesBetterRockets

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Even

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

HOU5.9 #8

MIN		HOU
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.20 #1
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
37.6 #6	3-point %	39.0 #3
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
27.3 #11	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Rockets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Rockets