Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Bulls
MIL	This season	CHI
1-5	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHI 121–119 · win probability CHI 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges

MIL 4, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHIBig

CHI offense vs MIL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILBig

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 45.9% and 47.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, CHI 69.8%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: MIL 29.7, CHI 33.5

MILSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away

MILSmall

MIL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, CHI 14.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIL away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs LAC	L113–127WO
Jan 9	@ IND	W110–102WU
Jan 12	vs DEN	L100–102LU

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ SAC	L110–126LU
Jan 9	@ GS	W130–124WO
Jan 10	@ PHX	L110–120WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

MIL 18–8 CHIMIL leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · CHI has won the last 2 meetings · MIL 14-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	CHI 132 @ MIL 125	MIL -1.5	CHI W
Mar 1, 2025-26	MIL 97 @ CHI 120	CHI +2.5	CHI W
Feb 3, 2025-26	CHI 115 @ MIL 131	MIL +1.5	MIL W
Dec 27, 2025-26	MIL 112 @ CHI 103	CHI -2.5	MIL W
Nov 7, 2025-26	CHI 110 @ MIL 126	MIL -4.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucks has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 3, Bulls 2, even 0

BucksBetterBulls

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

CHISmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

MILBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

MILSmall

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

BucksBetterBulls

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Even

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

CHIBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

MILBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

CHI5.0 #12

MIL		CHI
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.04 #26
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
33.9 #21	3-point %	28.1 #30
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
26.0 #20	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
5.7 #30	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Bulls

What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Bulls

Bucks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Bulls