Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Heat
MEM	This season	MIA
6-0	Record	2-4
6-0	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 120–117 · win probability MIA 59%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, MIA 4 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 42.1% and 41.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

MEMBig

MEM offense vs MIA defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, MIA 72.3%

MIABig

MIA offense vs MEM defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, MIA 27.3. Allowed: MEM 31.4, MIA 23.2

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, MEM 4-0 away

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, MIA 15.4%

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MEM away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ HOU	L101–132LO
Jan 8	@ SA	L98–123LU
Jan 10	vs DAL	L112–120LU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ BKN	W126–110WO
Jan 8	@ PHI	W119–109WU
Jan 10	vs NO	W123–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 5–5 MIASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	MEM 120 @ MIA 136	MIA -11.5	MIA W
Oct 24, 2025-26	MIA 146 @ MEM 114	MEM -3.5	MIA W
Apr 3, 2024-25	MEM 110 @ MIA 108	MIA +5.5	MIA W
Mar 15, 2024-25	MIA 91 @ MEM 125	MEM -5.5	MEM W
Jan 24, 2023-24	MEM 105 @ MIA 96	MIA -11.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 4, Heat 1, even 0

GrizzliesBetterHeat

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMSmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMSmall

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

GrizzliesBetterHeat

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMBig

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

MIA5.0 #13

MEM		MIA
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.11 #14
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
41.7 #1	3-point %	34.1 #19
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
27.0 #13	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
6.3 #28	Steals per game	8.3 #19
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Heat

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Heat

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Heat