Kaseya Center · at Heat
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MIA 123–118 · win probability MIA 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 240.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NO has more of the edges
NO 5, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far
MIABigMIA offense vs NO defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NOBigNO offense vs MIA defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
NOBigThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 32.8% and 41.7% of their shots
MIASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: NO 16.3%, MIA 15.4%
NOSmallRecent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2
NOSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, MIA 72.3%
NOSmallShooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8
MIASmallHome court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, NO 0-2 away
Context
Tempo
About 107 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, MIA 27.3. Allowed: NO 30.6, MIA 23.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIA -4.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model240.7
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 118.2 · MIA 122.5
Win probability
MIA 62%
1st half
Spread
MIA -2.2
Total
120.1
Projected score
NO 58.9 · MIA 61.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
NO 1–9 MIAMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 4 meetings · NO 2-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025-26 | MIA 123 @ NO 111 | NO -1.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 4, 2025-26 | NO 106 @ MIA 125 | MIA -7.5 | MIA W |
| Apr 11, 2024-25 | MIA 153 @ NO 104 | NO +14.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 1, 2024-25 | NO 108 @ MIA 119 | MIA -8.5 | MIA W |
| Mar 22, 2023-24 | NO 111 @ MIA 88 | MIA -2.5 | NO W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vs
DAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Pelicans 0, Heat 0, even 5
PelicansBetterHeat
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
=Even
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
=Even
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
=Even
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
=Even
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
=Even
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
PelicansBetterHeat
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
←NOBig
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→MIABig
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
→MIASmall
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
→MIABig
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→MIABig
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7MIA118.3 #9Points per possession
NO1.10 #15MIA1.11 #14Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2MIA106.2 #5Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9MIA54.6 #123-point %
NO31.2 #25MIA34.1 #193-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30MIA41.7 #20Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4MIA27.3 #19Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26MIA14.1 #5Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25MIA24.5 #24Assists per game
NO25.5 #21MIA28.8 #3Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24MIA121.5 #26Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16MIA1.15 #26Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21MIA56.8 #27Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5MIA40.6 #29Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10MIA15.4 #18Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6MIA72.3 #17Steals per game
NO13.7 #1MIA8.3 #19Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16MIA5.0 #13| NO | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 118.3 #9 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.11 #14 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #5 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 54.6 #12 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 34.1 #19 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 41.7 #20 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 27.3 #19 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 14.1 #5 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.5 #24 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 28.8 #3 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 121.5 #26 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.15 #26 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.8 #27 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 40.6 #29 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 15.4 #18 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.3 #17 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 8.3 #19 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 5.0 #13 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.