Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 10, 6:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Magic
OKC	This season	ORL
4-2	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 112–110 · win probability OKC 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 3, ORL 2 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

ORL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, ORL 13.6%

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, ORL 68.9%

ORLBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 35.8% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, ORL 31.7. Allowed: OKC 23.4, ORL 29.8

Even

OKC offense vs ORL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: OKC away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	vs HOU	L98–119LU
Jan 15	vs UTAH	W146–111WO
Jan 17	vs POR	W124–95WU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 12	@ POR	W110–106WU
Jan 14	@ LAL	L104–105WU
Jan 15	@ LAC	W111–109WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 8–2 ORLOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 6 meetings · OKC 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 17, 2025-26	OKC 113 @ ORL 108	ORL +9.5	ORL W
Feb 3, 2025-26	ORL 92 @ OKC 128	OKC -11.5	OKC W
Dec 19, 2024-25	OKC 105 @ ORL 99	ORL +6.5	ORL W
Nov 4, 2024-25	ORL 86 @ OKC 102	OKC -12.5	OKC W
Feb 13, 2023-24	OKC 127 @ ORL 113	ORL +2.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Magic 1, even 1

ThunderBetterMagic

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

Even

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

ThunderBetterMagic

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

ORLSmall

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

ORLSmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

ORL4.2 #23

OKC		ORL
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.07 #21
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
30.9 #26	3-point %	35.4 #11
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
21.7 #29	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
8.3 #20	Steals per game	7.0 #26
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Magic

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Magic

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Magic