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NBA · Sun, Jan 10

Jazz @ Pistons

Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
#26UTAHJazz
@
#4DETPistons
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTAHThis seasonDET
1-5Record5-1
1-5ATS5-1
2-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 120–105 · win probability DET 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

UTAH 0, DET 8 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
UTAH offense vs DET defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, DET 15.6%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, DET 17.1%
DETBig
Three-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETBig
DET offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
DETBig
Recent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, DET 28.9. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, DET 28.1
DETSmall
Home court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, DET 72.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -15.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.8
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 105.4 · DET 120.4
Win probability
DET 86%
1st half
Spread
DET -8.3
Total
113.2
Projected score
UTAH 52.4 · DET 60.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 0, Pistons 3, even 2
JazzBetterPistons
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8
DETBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11
DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17
DETBig
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
Even
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36
Even
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
JazzBetterPistons
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
DETSmall
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
DETBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jazz
Guards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTAHDET
Scoring
108.7 #24Points per game109.8 #21
1.05 #25Points per possession1.09 #18
104.0 #12Pace (possessions)100.9 #29
Shooting
51.0 #24Effective FG%53.1 #17
32.6 #233-point %36.3 #9
41.7 #213-point attempt rate43.3 #13
31.6 #10Free throw rate28.9 #14
Possessions
17.0 #25Turnover rate15.6 #17
25.7 #22Offensive rebound rate27.2 #17
26.2 #19Assists per game26.7 #15
Defense
118.8 #25Points allowed101.8 #1
1.14 #25Points allowed per possession1.01 #1
53.9 #18Opponent effective FG%48.8 #2
37.6 #25Opponent 3-point %32.5 #10
13.3 #28Turnovers forced17.1 #6
77.1 #4Defensive rebound rate72.8 #15
6.2 #29Steals per game9.0 #12
6.5 #5Blocks per game6.7 #4
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
  • Lvs Spurs111–117
  • Lvs Grizzlies105–110
  • Lvs Lakers123–132
  • Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.