Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 12, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Raptors
DET	This season	TOR
5-1	Record	3-3
5-1	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 110–110 · win probability TOR 50%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 5, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

TOR offense vs DET defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.3% and 38.1% of their shots

DETBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: DET 28.1, TOR 41.5

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: DET 17.1%, TOR 20.8%

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, TOR 73.4%

TORSmall

DET offense vs TOR defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, DET 3-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DET away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	vs DAL	L114–116LU
Jan 16	@ HOU	L104–111LU
Jan 18	@ CLE	L94–125LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	vs PHX	L98–120LU
Jan 15	vs MIA	W128–114WO
Jan 17	@ CHI	W135–92WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

DET 11–6 TORDET leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · DET 13-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 31, 2025-26	TOR 116 @ DET 127	DET -3.5	DET W
Mar 15, 2025-26	DET 108 @ TOR 119	TOR +3.5	TOR W
Feb 11, 2025-26	DET 113 @ TOR 95	TOR -1.5	DET W
Apr 4, 2024-25	DET 117 @ TOR 105	TOR +10.5	DET W
Jan 11, 2024-25	TOR 114 @ DET 123	DET -5.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pistons 1, Raptors 1, even 3

PistonsBetterRaptors

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

DETSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

TORSmall

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

PistonsBetterRaptors

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

TORSmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

TOR4.3 #19

DET		TOR
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.11 #13
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
36.3 #9	3-point %	32.0 #24
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
26.7 #15	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.0 #12	Steals per game	12.7 #2
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Raptors

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Raptors

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Raptors