Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Wizards
LAL	This season	WSH
5-2	Record	3-3
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 120–114 · win probability LAL 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 3, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

WSH offense vs LAL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, WSH 34.2. Allowed: LAL 30.7, WSH 21.8

LALSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, WSH 68.0%

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 45.7% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs BOS	L89–111LU
Jan 8	vs DET	L110–113LU
Jan 11	@ LAC	W103–87WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs OKC	L111–132WO
Jan 8	vs MIN	L115–141LO
Jan 11	vs ATL	L96–126LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 9–1 WSHLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 8 meetings · LAL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	WSH 101 @ LAL 120	LAL -15.5	LAL W
Jan 30, 2025-26	LAL 142 @ WSH 111	WSH +10.5	LAL W
Jan 30, 2024-25	LAL 134 @ WSH 96	WSH +8.5	LAL W
Jan 21, 2024-25	WSH 88 @ LAL 111	LAL -13.5	LAL W
Apr 3, 2023-24	LAL 125 @ WSH 120	WSH +12.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 3, Wizards 1, even 1

LakersBetterWizards

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALSmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

LakersBetterWizards

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

LALSmall

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

WSH5.3 #9

LAL		WSH
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.08 #19
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
38.9 #4	3-point %	29.3 #29
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
23.4 #27	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
10.4 #4	Steals per game	7.2 #24
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Wizards

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Wizards

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Wizards