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NBA · Fri, Jan 8

Pistons @ Lakers

crypto.com Arena · at Lakers
#4DETPistons
@
#10LALLakers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonLAL
5-1Record5-2
5-1ATS4-3
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 113–113 · win probability DET 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 226.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 2, LAL 1 · 2026-27 so far
DETSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, LAL 67.4%
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: DET 17.1%, LAL 17.8%
LALSmall
Home court
LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.3% and 45.7% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4
Even
LAL offense vs DET defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: DET 28.1, LAL 30.7
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7
Even
DET offense vs LAL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -0.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model226.3
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 113.4 · LAL 112.9
Win probability
DET 51%
1st half
Spread
DET -0.4
Total
113.4
Projected score
DET 56.9 · LAL 56.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 2, Lakers 1, even 2
PistonsBetterLakers
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
LALBig
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
Even
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
DETSmall
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETSmall
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
Even
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
PistonsBetterLakers
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Even
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
Even
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
LALBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Lakers
Guards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
DETLAL
Scoring
109.8Points per game120.3
1.09Points per possession1.18
100.9Pace (possessions)102.9
Shooting
53.1Effective FG%60.1
36.33-point %38.9
43.33-point attempt rate45.7
28.9Free throw rate37.2
Possessions
15.6Turnover rate18.3
27.2Offensive rebound rate26.8
26.7Assists per game23.4
Defense
101.8Points allowed115.0
1.01Points allowed per possession1.11
48.8Opponent effective FG%53.7
32.5Opponent 3-point %36.7
17.1Turnovers forced17.8
72.8Defensive rebound rate67.4
9.0Steals per game10.4
6.7Blocks per game6.7
DETLAL
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game120.3 #5
1.09 #18Points per possession1.18 #2
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)102.9 #17
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%60.1 #1
36.3 #93-point %38.9 #4
43.3 #133-point attempt rate45.7 #9
28.9 #14Free throw rate37.2 #2
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate18.3 #28
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate26.8 #19
26.7 #15Assists per game23.4 #27
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed115.0 #17
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.11 #19
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%53.7 #17
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %36.7 #22
17.1 #6Turnovers forced17.8 #4
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate67.4 #29
9.0 #12Steals per game10.4 #4
6.7 #4Blocks per game6.7 #3
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Raptors131–125
  • L@ Warriors95–112
  • W@ Clippers103–87
  • Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
  • W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.