New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 8, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Kings
NY	This season	SAC
2-4	Record	0-6
1-5	ATS	1-5
1-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 120–106 · win probability NY 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

NY 6, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

SAC offense vs NY defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, SAC 73.7%

NYBig

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 43.2% and 38.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

NY offense vs SAC defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

NYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, SAC 26.4. Allowed: NY 25.9, SAC 31.2

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: NY 13.2%, SAC 14.6%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NY away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	vs DEN	W142–103WO
Jan 13	@ BOS	L103–107LU
Jan 14	vs MIA	W132–125LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs CHA	L90–134LU
Jan 12	@ GS	W124–118WO
Jan 14	vs LAC	L96–121LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 8–2 SACNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2025-26	SAC 87 @ NY 103	NY -14.5	NY W
Jan 14, 2025-26	NY 101 @ SAC 112	SAC +10.5	SAC W
Mar 10, 2024-25	NY 133 @ SAC 104	SAC +1.5	NY W
Jan 25, 2024-25	SAC 120 @ NY 143	NY -4.5	NY W
Apr 4, 2023-24	SAC 109 @ NY 120	NY -3.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 5, Kings 0, even 0

KnicksBetterKings

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

NYBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

KnicksBetterKings

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

NYSmall

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

SAC2.3 #30

NY		SAC
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
35.2 #13	3-point %	30.4 #27
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
26.2 #18	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
7.3 #23	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Kings

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Kings

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Kings