LA Clippers at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Magic
LAC	This season	ORL
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 113–111 · win probability ORL 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LAC 3, ORL 3 · 2026-27 so far

ORLBig

LAC offense vs ORL defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACSmall

ORL offense vs LAC defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, ORL 13.6%

LACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, ORL 68.9%

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 42.3% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, ORL 31.7. Allowed: LAC 24.7, ORL 29.8

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: LAC away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ MIL	W127–113LO
Jan 9	vs BOS	L115–146LO
Jan 11	vs LAL	L87–103LU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs CLE	L131–136WO
Jan 8	@ NO	W112–108LU
Jan 10	vs OKC	L108–113WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 6–4 ORLLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	ORL 111 @ LAC 109	LAC -4.5	ORL W
Nov 20, 2025-26	LAC 101 @ ORL 129	ORL -6.5	ORL W
Mar 31, 2024-25	LAC 96 @ ORL 87	ORL +3.5	LAC W
Nov 20, 2024-25	ORL 93 @ LAC 104	LAC +2.5	LAC W
Mar 29, 2023-24	LAC 100 @ ORL 97	ORL +1.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 2, Magic 3, even 0

ClippersBetterMagic

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

ORLBig

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

LACSmall

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

ORLSmall

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

ClippersBetterMagic

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

ORLBig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACSmall

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

ORLBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

ORL4.2 #23

LAC		ORL
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.07 #21
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
38.6 #5	3-point %	35.4 #11
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
24.3 #26	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
11.3 #3	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Magic

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Magic

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Magic