Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 8, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Pelicans
ORL	This season	NO
2-4	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 117–116 · win probability NO 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

ORL 0, NO 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, NO 76.4%

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

NOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, NO 17.4%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, NO 16.3%

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

ORL offense vs NO defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 46.5% and 32.8% of their shots

Even

NO offense vs ORL defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, NO 35.3. Allowed: ORL 29.8, NO 30.6

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs OKC	L108–113WU
Jan 12	@ POR	W110–106WU
Jan 14	@ LAL	L104–105WU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ MIA	L111–123LO
Jan 14	@ SA	W104–95WU
Jan 17	vs SA	W104–95WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ORL 9–1 NOORL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 9 meetings · ORL 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ NO 108	NO +6.5	NO W
Jan 11, 2025-26	NO 118 @ ORL 128	ORL -7.5	ORL W
Mar 13, 2024-25	ORL 113 @ NO 93	NO +2.5	ORL W
Nov 8, 2024-25	NO 88 @ ORL 115	ORL -7.5	ORL W
Apr 3, 2023-24	ORL 117 @ NO 108	NO -4.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Pelicans 3, even 1

MagicBetterPelicans

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLSmall

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

NOSmall

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

NOBig

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

NOSmall

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

MagicBetterPelicans

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

Even

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

NOSmall

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

NO4.8 #16

ORL		NO
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.10 #15
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
35.4 #11	3-point %	31.2 #25
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
26.3 #16	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
7.0 #26	Steals per game	13.7 #1
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Pelicans

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Pelicans