Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 8, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Raptors
UTAH	This season	TOR
1-5	Record	3-3
1-5	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 122–109 · win probability TOR 82%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

UTAH 1, TOR 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, TOR 20.8%

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

TOR offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

UTAH offense vs TOR defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, TOR 73.4%

UTAHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, TOR 27.7. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 38.1% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ DET	W131–129WO
Jan 12	vs CHI	L126–128WO
Jan 14	vs CHA	L95–150LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs PHI	L102–115LU
Jan 12	vs DET	L116–127LO
Jan 13	vs PHX	L98–120LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 5–5 TORSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 4 meetings · UTAH 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	TOR 143 @ UTAH 127	UTAH +8.5	TOR W
Feb 1, 2025-26	UTAH 100 @ TOR 107	TOR -10.5	UTAH W
Mar 14, 2024-25	TOR 126 @ UTAH 118	UTAH -1.5	TOR W
Mar 7, 2024-25	UTAH 109 @ TOR 118	TOR -5.5	TOR W
Jan 12, 2023-24	TOR 113 @ UTAH 145	UTAH -1.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 0, Raptors 4, even 1

JazzBetterRaptors

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

TORSmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

TORBig

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

TORSmall

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

JazzBetterRaptors

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

TORBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

TOR4.3 #19

UTAH		TOR
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.11 #13
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
32.6 #23	3-point %	32.0 #24
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
26.2 #19	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
6.2 #29	Steals per game	12.7 #2
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Raptors