Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Magic
CLE	This season	ORL
4-2	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 117–114 · win probability CLE 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 5, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

CLE offense vs ORL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, ORL 68.9%

CLEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, ORL 13.6%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, ORL 31.7. Allowed: CLE 23.2, ORL 29.8

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 43.6% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

ORL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: CLE away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 9	vs DEN	W119–117WU
Jan 11	@ MIN	W127–125LO
Jan 13	@ ATL	L111–114LU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	@ NO	W112–108LU
Jan 10	vs OKC	L108–113WU
Jan 12	@ POR	W110–106WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

CLE 17–8 ORLCLE leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · CLE 12-11-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 24, 2025-26	ORL 131 @ CLE 136	CLE -10.5	ORL W
Mar 11, 2025-26	CLE 122 @ ORL 128	ORL +3.5	ORL W
Jan 26, 2025-26	ORL 98 @ CLE 114	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Jan 24, 2025-26	CLE 119 @ ORL 105	ORL -1.5	CLE W
Mar 16, 2024-25	ORL 108 @ CLE 103	CLE -10.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Magic 0, even 3

CavaliersBetterMagic

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

Even

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

CavaliersBetterMagic

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

ORL4.2 #23

CLE		ORL
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.07 #21
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
37.0 #8	3-point %	35.4 #11
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
28.7 #4	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
7.8 #22	Steals per game	7.0 #26
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Magic

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Magic

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Magic