Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Hornets
DEN	This season	CHA
3-2	Record	3-4
2-3	ATS	3-4
3-2	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 112–110 · win probability DEN 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, CHA 18.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, CHA 28.4

DENBig

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 40.9% and 50.8% of their shots

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, CHA 76.6%

DENBig

CHA offense vs DEN defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, CHA 14.5%

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DEN offense vs CHA defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 9	@ CLE	L117–119LU
Jan 11	@ NY	L103–142LO
Jan 12	@ MIL	W102–100WU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 9	@ POR	W103–101LU
Jan 10	@ SAC	W134–90WU
Jan 13	@ GS	L116–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 8–2 CHADEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 18, 2025-26	CHA 110 @ DEN 87	DEN +2.5	CHA W
Dec 7, 2025-26	DEN 115 @ CHA 106	CHA +10.5	CHA W
Feb 20, 2024-25	CHA 115 @ DEN 129	DEN -18.5	CHA W
Feb 1, 2024-25	DEN 107 @ CHA 104	CHA +12.5	CHA W
Jan 1, 2023-24	CHA 93 @ DEN 111	DEN -17.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 3, Hornets 0, even 2

NuggetsBetterHornets

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENSmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

Even

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

NuggetsBetterHornets

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

CHA5.0 #15

DEN		CHA
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.13 #9	Points per possession	0.99 #30
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
37.4 #7	3-point %	29.6 #28
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
26.8 #14	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
10.2 #5	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Hornets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Hornets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Hornets