Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 9, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Trail Blazers
CHA	This season	POR
3-4	Record	4-1
3-4	ATS	3-2
1-6	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 114–104 · win probability POR 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

CHA 2, POR 6 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

CHA offense vs POR defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

PORBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 50.8% and 51.5% of their shots

PORBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, POR 35.9. Allowed: CHA 28.4, POR 27.8

PORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, POR 14.6%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, POR 14.8%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

CHASmall

POR offense vs CHA defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, POR 77.3%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ SAC	W134–90WU
Jan 13	@ GS	L116–136LO
Jan 14	@ UTAH	W150–95WO

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 12	vs ORL	L106–110LU
Jan 13	vs LAL	W136–129WO
Jan 15	vs SAC	W128–120LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 4–6 PORPOR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	CHA 103 @ POR 101	POR +3.5	POR W
Feb 28, 2025-26	POR 93 @ CHA 109	CHA -6.5	CHA W
Feb 22, 2024-25	CHA 88 @ POR 141	POR -6.5	POR W
Jan 24, 2024-25	POR 102 @ CHA 97	CHA -0.5	POR W
Apr 3, 2023-24	POR 89 @ CHA 86	CHA -1.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hornets 2, Trail Blazers 2, even 1

HornetsBetterTrail Blazers

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

PORBig

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHASmall

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHASmall

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

PORBig

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

HornetsBetterTrail Blazers

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

PORBig

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

PORBig

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

POR4.2 #21

CHA		POR
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	120.6 #4
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.16 #5
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
29.6 #28	3-point %	35.3 #12
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
7.1 #25	Steals per game	8.6 #18
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Trail Blazers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Trail Blazers