Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 9, 8:30 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Warriors
CHI	This season	GS
1-5	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	5-2
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 127–114 · win probability GS 82%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

CHI 0, GS 7 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

GS offense vs CHI defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 47.9% and 47.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

GSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, GS 16.7%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, GS 17.6%

GSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, GS 70.4%

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

CHI offense vs GS defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, GS 28.8. Allowed: CHI 33.5, GS 27.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ PHX	L110–120WU
Jan 12	@ UTAH	W128–126LO
Jan 14	vs MIN	W120–115WU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 12	vs SAC	L118–124LO
Jan 13	vs CHA	W136–116WO
Jan 15	@ ATL	L110–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 3–7 GSGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ GS 124	GS -6.5	CHI W
Dec 7, 2025-26	GS 123 @ CHI 91	CHI +1.5	GS W
Feb 8, 2024-25	GS 132 @ CHI 111	CHI +6.5	GS W
Jan 23, 2024-25	CHI 106 @ GS 131	GS -4.5	GS W
Mar 7, 2023-24	CHI 125 @ GS 122	GS -8.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Warriors 3, even 2

BullsBetterWarriors

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

Even

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

GSSmall

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

Even

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

GSBig

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

GSBig

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

BullsBetterWarriors

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

GSBig

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

GS4.1 #24

CHI		GS
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.17 #3
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
28.1 #30	3-point %	40.0 #2
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
24.3 #25	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.1 #11
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Warriors