Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Hawks
IND	This season	ATL
2-5	Record	3-4
3-4	ATS	3-4
3-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 121–112 · win probability ATL 75%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

IND 2, ATL 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

ATL offense vs IND defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: IND 14.9%, ATL 18.3%

INDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, ATL 23.4. Allowed: IND 32.1, ATL 32.1

ATLSmall

IND offense vs ATL defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 43.1% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, IND 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: IND away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 9	vs MIL	L102–110LU
Jan 11	vs BKN	L90–98LU
Jan 13	vs MIL	L102–110LU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs SA	L98–126LU
Jan 11	@ WSH	W126–96WU
Jan 13	vs CLE	W114–111WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

IND 7–10 ATLATL leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · IND 8-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 31, 2025-26	ATL 124 @ IND 129	IND +1.5	IND W
Jan 26, 2025-26	IND 116 @ ATL 132	ATL -5.5	ATL W
Oct 31, 2025-26	ATL 128 @ IND 108	IND +2.5	ATL W
Mar 8, 2024-25	IND 118 @ ATL 120	ATL +1.5	ATL W
Mar 6, 2024-25	IND 118 @ ATL 124	ATL -1.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 0, Hawks 2, even 3

PacersBetterHawks

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

Even

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

Even

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

ATLSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

PacersBetterHawks

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

ATLSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

INDBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

ATL3.7 #29

IND		ATL
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.10 #16
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
34.1 #18	3-point %	32.8 #22
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
28.0 #7	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
6.9 #27	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Hawks