Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Wizards
OKC	This season	WSH
4-2	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 115–109 · win probability OKC 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

OKC 4, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

WSH offense vs OKC defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, WSH 34.2. Allowed: OKC 23.4, WSH 21.8

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, WSH 13.3%

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 35.8% and 37.6% of their shots

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs WSH defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: OKC away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ ORL	W113–108LU
Jan 13	vs HOU	L98–119LU
Jan 15	vs UTAH	W146–111WO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	vs MIN	L115–141LO
Jan 11	vs ATL	L96–126LU
Jan 12	@ PHI	L131–153LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 8–2 WSHOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 8 meetings · OKC 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	OKC 132 @ WSH 111	WSH +21.5	WSH W
Oct 30, 2025-26	WSH 108 @ OKC 127	OKC -15.5	OKC W
Jan 12, 2024-25	OKC 136 @ WSH 95	WSH +15.5	OKC W
Dec 23, 2024-25	WSH 105 @ OKC 123	OKC -17.5	OKC W
Feb 23, 2023-24	WSH 106 @ OKC 147	OKC -15.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 2, Wizards 1, even 2

ThunderBetterWizards

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

Even

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

ThunderBetterWizards

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

WSH5.3 #9

OKC		WSH
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
30.9 #26	3-point %	29.3 #29
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
21.7 #29	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
8.3 #20	Steals per game	7.2 #24
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Wizards

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Wizards

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Wizards