Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 7, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Lakers
BOS	This season	LAL
5-1	Record	5-2
3-3	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 114–113 · win probability BOS 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BOS 2, LAL 2 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, LAL 37.2. Allowed: BOS 31.7, LAL 30.7

BOSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, LAL 67.4%

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Even

BOS offense vs LAL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

LAL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 9	@ LAC	W146–115WO
Jan 11	vs HOU	W114–93WU
Jan 13	vs NY	W107–103WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	vs DET	L110–113LU
Jan 11	@ LAC	W103–87WU
Jan 13	@ POR	L129–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 7–3 LALBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · BOS 5-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	BOS 111 @ LAL 89	LAL +1.5	BOS W
Dec 5, 2025-26	LAL 105 @ BOS 126	BOS -8.5	BOS W
Mar 8, 2024-25	LAL 101 @ BOS 111	BOS -6.5	BOS W
Jan 23, 2024-25	BOS 96 @ LAL 117	LAL +6.5	LAL W
Feb 1, 2023-24	LAL 114 @ BOS 105	BOS -15.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 2, Lakers 0, even 3

CelticsBetterLakers

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

CelticsBetterLakers

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Even

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

LAL6.7 #3

BOS		LAL
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.18 #2
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
35.5 #10	3-point %	38.9 #4
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
28.0 #6	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.2 #9	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Lakers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Lakers

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Lakers