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NBA · Thu, Jan 7

Pistons @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors
#4DETPistons
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonGS
5-1Record4-3
5-1ATS5-2
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 114–111 · win probability DET 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DET 2, GS 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmall
GS offense vs DET defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, DET 3-1 away
GSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, GS 70.4%
Even
DET offense vs GS defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, GS 16.7%. Forced: DET 17.1%, GS 17.6%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: DET 28.1, GS 27.3
Even
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 43.3% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -2.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.0
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 113.8 · GS 111.2
Win probability
DET 57%
1st half
Spread
DET -1.6
Total
112.8
Projected score
DET 57.2 · GS 55.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 3, Warriors 2, even 0
PistonsBetterWarriors
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
GSSmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
DETSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
DETBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETSmall
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
GSBig
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
PistonsBetterWarriors
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Even
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETSmall
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
DETBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETGS
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game117.7 #11
1.09 #18Points per possession1.17 #3
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%55.3 #8
36.3 #93-point %40.0 #2
43.3 #133-point attempt rate47.1 #5
28.9 #14Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate16.7 #22
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
26.7 #15Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed114.9 #16
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
17.1 #6Turnovers forced17.6 #5
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
9.0 #12Steals per game9.1 #11
6.7 #4Blocks per game4.1 #24
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.