Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Kings
DET	This season	SAC
5-1	Record	0-6
5-1	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 121–106 · win probability DET 85%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 8, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

SAC offense vs DET defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 43.3% and 38.0% of their shots

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

DETBig

DET offense vs SAC defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

DETBig

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

DETBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: DET 17.1%, SAC 14.6%

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DETSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, SAC 26.4. Allowed: DET 28.1, SAC 31.2

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, DET 3-1 away

DETSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DET away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ GS	W115–101WU
Jan 8	@ LAL	W113–110WU
Jan 10	vs UTAH	L129–131LO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs CHI	W126–110WU
Jan 8	vs NY	L87–103LU
Jan 10	vs CHA	L90–134LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DET 5–5 SACSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · DET 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2025-26	SAC 116 @ DET 139	DET -12.5	DET W
Dec 23, 2025-26	DET 136 @ SAC 127	SAC +9.5	SAC W
Apr 7, 2024-25	SAC 127 @ DET 117	DET -4.5	SAC W
Dec 26, 2024-25	DET 114 @ SAC 113	SAC -4.5	DET W
Feb 7, 2023-24	DET 133 @ SAC 120	SAC -13.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 5, Kings 0, even 0

PistonsBetterKings

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

DETBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

DETBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

DETBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

DETBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

DETSmall

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

PistonsBetterKings

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

DETBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

SAC2.3 #30

DET		SAC
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.03 #28
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
36.3 #9	3-point %	30.4 #27
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
26.7 #15	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.0 #12	Steals per game	8.0 #21
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Kings

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Kings

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Kings