Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 3, 5:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Nuggets
DET	This season	DEN
5-1	Record	3-2
5-1	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 114–112 · win probability DET 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 4, DEN 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: DET 28.1, DEN 21.5

DETSmall

DEN offense vs DET defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

DETSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DETSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: DET 17.1%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, DET 3-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, DEN 70.5%

Even

DET offense vs DEN defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 43.3% and 40.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: DET away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	@ SAC	W139–116WO
Jan 7	@ GS	W115–101WU
Jan 8	@ LAL	W113–110WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	vs PHX	W127–120WO
Jan 7	@ CHA	L87–110LU
Jan 9	@ CLE	L117–119LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DET 3–7 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · DET 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2025-26	DEN 121 @ DET 124	DET -5.5	DEN W
Jan 27, 2025-26	DET 109 @ DEN 107	DEN +7.5	DEN W
Feb 28, 2024-25	DEN 134 @ DET 119	DET -2.5	DEN W
Dec 28, 2024-25	DET 121 @ DEN 134	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Jan 7, 2023-24	DET 114 @ DEN 131	DEN -16.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 0, Nuggets 1, even 4

PistonsBetterNuggets

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

Even

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

PistonsBetterNuggets

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

DETSmall

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

DEN4.4 #18

DET		DEN
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.13 #9
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
36.3 #9	3-point %	37.4 #7
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
26.7 #15	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.0 #12	Steals per game	10.2 #5
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Nuggets