Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 1:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Hornets
CLE	This season	CHA
4-2	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 113–108 · win probability CLE 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 6, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 43.6% and 50.8% of their shots

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, CHA 18.9. Allowed: CLE 23.2, CHA 28.4

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, CHA 76.6%

CLEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, CHA 14.5%

CLEBig

CHA offense vs CLE defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away

CLESmall

CLE offense vs CHA defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ HOU	L100–117LU
Jan 5	vs TOR	W114–102WO
Jan 7	@ ORL	W136–131LO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ MIL	L121–122WO
Jan 5	vs ATL	L81–128LU
Jan 7	vs DEN	W110–87WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

CLE 13–6 CHACLE leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 3 meetings · CLE 7-11-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 20, 2025-26	CLE 118 @ CHA 113	CHA +5.5	CHA W
Jan 21, 2025-26	CLE 94 @ CHA 87	CHA +3.5	CLE W
Dec 22, 2025-26	CHA 132 @ CLE 139	CLE -9.5	CHA W
Dec 14, 2025-26	CHA 119 @ CLE 111	CLE -11.5	CHA W
Mar 7, 2024-25	CLE 118 @ CHA 117	CHA +16.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Hornets 1, even 0

CavaliersBetterHornets

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLESmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLESmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLESmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

CHABig

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

CavaliersBetterHornets

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Even

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CLESmall

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

CHA5.0 #15

CLE		CHA
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.14 #7	Points per possession	0.99 #30
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
37.0 #8	3-point %	29.6 #28
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
28.7 #4	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
7.8 #22	Steals per game	7.1 #25
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Hornets

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Hornets

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Hornets