Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 3, 7:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Rockets
CLE	This season	HOU
4-2	Record	6-1
2-4	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 117–111 · win probability HOU 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

CLE 0, HOU 5 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

HOU offense vs CLE defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, HOU 73.2%

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 43.6% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

Even

CLE offense vs HOU defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, HOU 15.7%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, HOU 31.9. Allowed: CLE 23.2, HOU 24.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: CLE away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	vs TOR	W114–102WO
Jan 7	@ ORL	W136–131LO
Jan 9	vs DEN	W119–117WU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	vs MIN	L132–136LO
Jan 7	vs MEM	W132–101WO
Jan 9	@ BKN	W120–96WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 4–6 HOUHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 5 meetings · CLE 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 27, 2025-26	CLE 100 @ HOU 117	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Nov 19, 2025-26	HOU 114 @ CLE 104	CLE +1.5	HOU W
Jan 25, 2024-25	HOU 135 @ CLE 131	CLE -4.5	HOU W
Jan 22, 2024-25	CLE 108 @ HOU 109	HOU -0.5	HOU W
Mar 16, 2023-24	CLE 103 @ HOU 117	HOU +4.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Cavaliers 1, Rockets 1, even 3

CavaliersBetterRockets

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

HOUBig

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLESmall

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

CavaliersBetterRockets

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Even

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

HOUBig

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

HOU5.9 #8

CLE		HOU
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.20 #1
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
37.0 #8	3-point %	39.0 #3
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
28.7 #4	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.7 #6
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Rockets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Rockets