LA Clippers at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 3, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Wizards
LAC	This season	WSH
1-5	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 114–113 · win probability LAC 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

LAC 2, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACBig

WSH offense vs LAC defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

LACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, WSH 68.0%

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, WSH 34.2. Allowed: LAC 24.7, WSH 21.8

WSHSmall

LAC offense vs WSH defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 42.3% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAC away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	@ ORL	L109–111LO
Jan 7	@ MIL	W127–113LO
Jan 9	vs BOS	L115–146LO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	vs LAL	L101–120LU
Jan 7	vs OKC	L111–132WO
Jan 8	vs MIN	L115–141LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 10–0 WSHLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 10 meetings · LAC 9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 19, 2025-26	LAC 110 @ WSH 106	WSH +6.5	WSH W
Jan 14, 2025-26	WSH 105 @ LAC 119	LAC -11.5	LAC W
Jan 23, 2024-25	WSH 93 @ LAC 110	LAC -14.5	LAC W
Nov 27, 2024-25	LAC 121 @ WSH 96	WSH +9.5	LAC W
Mar 1, 2023-24	WSH 115 @ LAC 140	LAC -16.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 2, Wizards 1, even 2

ClippersBetterWizards

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

Even

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

LACSmall

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

ClippersBetterWizards

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

WSHSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

LACBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

WSH5.3 #9

LAC		WSH
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
38.6 #5	3-point %	29.3 #29
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
24.3 #26	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
11.3 #3	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Wizards

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Wizards