Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 3, 7:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Raptors
LAL	This season	TOR
5-2	Record	3-3
4-3	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 117–114 · win probability TOR 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 4, TOR 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, TOR 73.4%

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, TOR 20.8%

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, TOR 27.7. Allowed: LAL 30.7, TOR 41.5

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

LALBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.7% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

LAL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

TOR offense vs LAL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LAL away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	@ WSH	W120–101WU
Jan 7	vs BOS	L89–111LU
Jan 8	vs DET	L110–113LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	@ CLE	L102–114LO
Jan 7	vs MIN	L94–117LU
Jan 8	vs UTAH	W143–127WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

LAL 9–2 TORLAL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 8 meetings · LAL 7-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 1, 2026-27	TOR 125 @ LAL 131	LAL -3.5	LAL W
Jan 18, 2025-26	TOR 93 @ LAL 110	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Dec 4, 2025-26	LAL 123 @ TOR 120	TOR -2.5	LAL W
Nov 10, 2024-25	TOR 103 @ LAL 123	LAL -10.5	LAL W
Nov 1, 2024-25	LAL 131 @ TOR 125	TOR +9.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lakers 2, Raptors 2, even 1

LakersBetterRaptors

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALBig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

TORSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

Even

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

LakersBetterRaptors

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALSmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

Even

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

TOR4.3 #19

LAL		TOR
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.11 #13
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
38.9 #4	3-point %	32.0 #24
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
23.4 #27	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
10.4 #4	Steals per game	12.7 #2
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Raptors

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Raptors

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Raptors