Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 3, 6:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Magic
MEM	This season	ORL
6-0	Record	2-4
6-0	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 116–114 · win probability ORL 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 7, ORL 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, ORL 68.9%

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 42.1% and 46.5% of their shots

MEMBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, ORL 13.6%

ORLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, ORL 31.7. Allowed: MEM 31.4, ORL 29.8

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

MEMSmall

ORL offense vs MEM defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, MEM 4-0 away

MEMSmall

MEM offense vs ORL defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MEM away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	@ MIA	L120–136LO
Jan 7	@ HOU	L101–132LO
Jan 8	@ SA	L98–123LU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 5	vs LAC	W111–109WO
Jan 7	vs CLE	L131–136WO
Jan 8	@ NO	W112–108LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 8–2 ORLMEM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MEM 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 18, 2025-26	ORL 109 @ MEM 126	MEM +2.5	MEM W
Jan 15, 2025-26	MEM 111 @ ORL 118	ORL -5.5	ORL W
Feb 21, 2024-25	MEM 105 @ ORL 104	ORL +1.5	ORL W
Oct 26, 2024-25	ORL 111 @ MEM 124	MEM -0.5	MEM W
Mar 30, 2023-24	MEM 88 @ ORL 118	ORL -13.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 4, Magic 1, even 0

GrizzliesBetterMagic

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

GrizzliesBetterMagic

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Even

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMSmall

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

ORL4.2 #23

MEM		ORL
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.07 #21
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
41.7 #1	3-point %	35.4 #11
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
27.0 #13	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
6.3 #28	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Magic

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Magic

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Magic