Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Hornets
ATL	This season	CHA
3-4	Record	3-4
3-4	ATS	3-4
4-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 111–110 · win probability ATL 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ATL 3, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, CHA 14.5%

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, CHA 76.6%

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

CHA offense vs ATL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 44.7% and 50.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, CHA 18.9. Allowed: ATL 32.1, CHA 28.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

ATL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs IND	L124–129LO
Jan 10	vs SA	L98–126LU
Jan 11	@ WSH	W126–96WU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	vs DEN	W110–87WU
Jan 9	@ POR	W103–101LU
Jan 10	@ SAC	W134–90WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

ATL 11–11 CHASeries tied · 22 games since 2021-22 · ATL 8-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	ATL 128 @ CHA 81	CHA +2.5	ATL W
Feb 11, 2025-26	ATL 107 @ CHA 110	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Feb 7, 2025-26	CHA 126 @ ATL 119	ATL +1.5	CHA W
Dec 18, 2025-26	ATL 126 @ CHA 133	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Nov 23, 2025-26	CHA 110 @ ATL 113	ATL -8.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 3, Hornets 0, even 2

HawksBetterHornets

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ATLSmall

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

HawksBetterHornets

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Even

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

CHABig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

CHA5.0 #15

ATL		CHA
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.10 #16	Points per possession	0.99 #30
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
32.8 #22	3-point %	29.6 #28
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
30.7 #1	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.4 #8	Steals per game	7.1 #25
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Hornets

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Hornets

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Hornets