Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Pacers
MIN	This season	IND
4-3	Record	2-5
6-1	ATS	3-4
4-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 122–109 · win probability MIN 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 6, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs IND defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

IND offense vs MIN defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, IND 72.7%

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 42.8% and 43.1% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, IND 31.2. Allowed: MIN 28.9, IND 32.1

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, IND 14.8%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, IND 14.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs SA	L111–121WO
Jan 5	@ HOU	W136–132WO
Jan 7	@ TOR	W117–94WU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	vs CHI	W145–126WO
Jan 6	@ SA	L119–134WO
Jan 7	@ ATL	W129–124WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIN 8–2 INDMIN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · MIN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 7, 2025-26	MIN 124 @ IND 104	IND +12.5	MIN W
Oct 26, 2025-26	IND 110 @ MIN 114	MIN -11.5	IND W
Mar 24, 2024-25	MIN 103 @ IND 119	IND +2.5	IND W
Mar 17, 2024-25	IND 132 @ MIN 130	MIN -10.5	IND W
Mar 7, 2023-24	MIN 113 @ IND 111	IND -1.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Pacers 1, even 0

TimberwolvesBetterPacers

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

INDSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINSmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

TimberwolvesBetterPacers

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINSmall

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

IND4.0 #26

MIN		IND
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.10 #17
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
37.6 #6	3-point %	34.1 #18
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
27.3 #11	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
9.0 #13	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Pacers

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Pacers

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Pacers