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NBA · Wed, Jan 6

Pacers @ Spurs

Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
#25INDPacers
@
#3SASpurs
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
INDThis seasonSA
2-5Record4-2
3-4ATS2-4
3-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 123–106 · win probability SA 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

IND 0, SA 6 · 2026-27 so far
SABig
SA offense vs IND defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
SABig
IND offense vs SA defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, SA 75.8%
SASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, SA 13.1%. Forced: IND 14.9%, SA 15.7%
SASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: IND 31.2, SA 24.5. Allowed: IND 32.1, SA 21.7
SASmall
Home court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, IND 2-2 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 43.1% and 39.0% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -16.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.7
Model edge—
Projected score
IND 106 · SA 122.7
Win probability
SA 88%
1st half
Spread
SA -9.3
Total
114.5
Projected score
IND 52.6 · SA 61.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 0, Spurs 4, even 1
PacersBetterSpurs
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
SASmall
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
SASmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
SASmall
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98
PacersBetterSpurs
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
SABig
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
SABig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIND betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
Spurs
Guards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
INDSA
Scoring
112.9 #18Points per game117.3 #12
1.10 #17Points per possession1.12 #10
103.1 #15Pace (possessions)104.3 #11
Shooting
53.9 #14Effective FG%53.3 #16
34.1 #183-point %34.9 #17
43.1 #153-point attempt rate39.0 #24
31.2 #12Free throw rate24.5 #24
Possessions
14.8 #10Turnover rate13.1 #2
23.1 #27Offensive rebound rate27.2 #16
28.0 #7Assists per game27.5 #9
Defense
116.7 #23Points allowed110.2 #12
1.13 #23Points allowed per possession1.06 #6
53.9 #19Opponent effective FG%52.1 #11
35.9 #20Opponent 3-point %37.3 #23
14.9 #19Turnovers forced15.7 #14
72.7 #16Defensive rebound rate75.8 #7
6.9 #27Steals per game9.2 #10
4.0 #26Blocks per game7.0 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Timberwolves121–111
  • W@ Jazz117–111
  • Wvs Kings130–103
  • W@ Mavericks122–106
  • Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.